Whether you’re using Monopoly as Christmas entertainment, or just something to do on a night in, Monopoly is one of those board games that always causes tension.
It can never be just a simple game, it often takes hours and causes a lot of rows with your family and friends.
But, what if there was a secret mathematical way to win a game of Monopoly every single time?
A YouTube video by Business Insider may be the answer to our prayers, as it talks about the importance of probability calculations during the game.
According to the video, we can use probability to work out the board’s ‘hotspots’ and how well specific investments can pay off.
The dice is perhaps the most important part of this game, with probability suggesting that two dice will roll to make seven more often than any other number.
Each number on the dice has different probabilities outlined below:
1 – 0 per cent
2 – 2.8 per cent
3 – 5.6 per cent
4 – 8.3 per cent
5 – 11.1 per cent
6 – 13.9 per cent
7 – 16.7 per cent
8 – 13.9 per cent
9 – 11.1 per cent
You can use probability to decide when and where to build houses.
Chance and community chest cards are very important too.
They include paying money, receiving money, going to jail, getting out of jail and moving to a different spot on the board.
The video explains that nine of the 12 sixteen cards in each deck require you to move more than 50 per cent of the time.
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“Speeding” can actually happen way more than you think too, with the probability of landing three doubles at 0.4 per cent, if you multiply that by 50 turns, it boosts up to a 20 per cent chance.
That means you’re more likely than you might think to end up going to jail for speeding, so make sure you watch out.
In terms of the layout of the Monopoly board, the video suggests that with four possible routes on the board, you’re more likely to end up in jail than anywhere else.
By working out which properties are closer to jail you can then work out the probability for how often each spot is visited.
The high levels of traffic mean they are probably a good place to invest, but stay away from the lower percentages.
Blogger Truman Collins worked out the long term probabilities for each of the squares on Monopoly, as well as expected income on opponent rolls from short and long term jail stays.
His research suggests that you should never hesitate to purchase that third house or to buy an additional railroads.
In a nutshell, six, seven and eight are the most likely to be rolled and you can use that knowledge to track opponents into paying rent.
You should also buy the properties closest to jail as they are the most landed on, and building three houses will allow you to recover investment the quickest.
It looks like there’s way more to Monopoly than squabbles across the kitchen table.